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Will Joan García’s arrival at Barcelona force out Ter Stegen?

Barcelona have completed a deal for goalkeeper Joan García, and that could spell the end for Marc-André ter Stegen. [45537192]

Will Joan García’s arrival at Barcelona force out Ter Stegen?

Barcelona’s first signing of the summer is one which stokes fires within the Catalan city as goalkeeper Joan García arrives from rivals Espanyol. But it could also potentially push the long-term No. 1 and captain Marc-André ter Stegen out of the club.

García, 24, had drawn Premier League interest (mainly from Arsenal) over the last 12 months and supporters of Espanyol would loved to have seen him move to England if it meant he didn’t become the first player to move directly to Barça since Igor Korneev in 1994, seven years before García was even born.

However, the lure of staying local and joining the LaLiga champions, who are led by a young core of stars including Lamine Yamal and Pedri, proved too strong. Sources told ESPN that Barça acted quickly to sign the player because his €25 million release clause was “an incredible market opportunity.”

In fear of a backlash, García turned off comments on his social media channels as he announced he was crossing the divide, but the consequences of the transfer may yet be bigger inside Barça than outside.

There is already a concerted push for Ter Stegen to leave, although the 33-year-old Germany international, for now, remains steadfast in his desire to stay. The summer is long, though, and the signing of García will lead to repercussions in the goalkeeping department, even if that means Wojciech Szczesny and Iñaki Peña depart rather than Ter Stegen.

Why did Barça need a new goalkeeper?

When coach Hansi Flick and sporting director Deco addressed Barça’s needs this summer, there were no obvious areas where the starting XI could be immediately improved. However, sources told ESPN there was an acknowledgement the team was not the finished article and that, to move to the next level, tweaks would be needed to aid the side’s evolution.

There was a feeling that certain positions needed more depth and competition. Deco told ESPN last month one area where that is the case is on the wings, due to a reliance on Yamal and Raphinha.

Another position where recruits have been explored, ESPN previously reported, is at full-back, although the club are now prioritizing other signings.

There are also two other positions where Barça have known for a while they needed to strengthen sooner or later. The first is a centre-forward, with Robert Lewandowski turning 37 this summer and out of contract next year. The second, a goalkeeper, was not necessarily viewed as urgent, but has become an issue following an injury to Ter Stegen last September and a leaky backline costing the team in the latter stages of the Champions League.

It has been nine years since there was any debate about the goalkeeper position. In the summer of 2016, Ter Stegen, after two years playing only in cup competitions, told the club it was either him or Claudio Bravo. Barça picked Ter Stegen; Bravo joined Manchester City.

Since then, Jasper Cillessen, Neto, Jordi Masip and, more recently, Peña have all played second fiddle to Ter Stegen.

Any hopes Peña had of being the long-term No. 1 disappeared when Ter Stegen got injured and Barça asked former Juventus and Arsenal goalkeeper Szczesny to come out of retirement. Peña kept the gloves for a while, but was eventually replaced by Szczesny and, sources told ESPN, is open to leaving.

Ter Stegen returned from a ruptured tendon ahead of schedule to make two inconsequential appearances at the end of the season, but sources say Barça already had in the back of their mind that if the right goalkeeper became available, maybe it was time to invest.

Flick’s side conceded 39 goals in 38 LaLiga games — more than any other side in the top four — but it was in the Champions League where the importance of an elite shot-stopper was glaringly obvious.

Barça conceded 24 times in 14 European games, including seven in a semifinal defeat to Internazionale. In the first leg, a 3-3 draw in Barcelona, Inter registered an xG (expected goals) of just 0.84. In the return game, Inter won 4-3 with an xG of 2.24 to Barça’s 2.81. The difference was the saves made by Inter’s Yann Sommer; not by Szczesny.

There is nuance here. Barça’s high defensive line, coupled with individual mistakes from outfield players at inopportune moments, occasionally leaves the goalkeeper exposed. Teams often have few chances against them, but the ones they do have can rank high in xG.

However, in the latter stages of competitions when the finer details take on an even greater magnitude, sources say the club felt they could improve in the goalkeeper position based on a trend over recent seasons, not just the last one.

What makes García special?

For the second time in three years, Barça won the league at rivals Espanyol, but the performance from the home team’s goalkeeper had not gone unnoticed by Szczesny, who played in goal for Flick’s side that night.

“I want to praise García,” he said after the game last month. “I think he’s been the best goalkeeper in LaLiga this season and he has a great future ahead of him.”

Szczesny’s comments are shared by many. By most metrics, García was the standout goalkeeper in Spain and the key to Espanyol staying up by just two points.

There was a long list of phenomenal performances: in the 1-0 win against Real Madrid; in a vital goalless draw against Leganés (Espanyol’s relegation rivals); and against Mallorca, when he saved two penalties, albeit one was eventually retaken and condemned Espanyol to defeat.

No goalkeeper in LaLiga made more saves (145) and only two (Athletic Club’s Unai Simón and Atlético Madrid’s Jan Oblak) bettered his 73.6% save success rate. Szczesny’s was 63.6% in 15 appearances, Peña’s 65.5% in 16 games, and Ter Stegen’s as low as 58.3% in his eight outings.

García’s saves meant he ended the season with 8.4 GPrv (goals prevented), another league high. Szczesny’s GPrv was 0.23, Pena’s -1.00 and Ter Stegen’s -2.56. In his nine seasons as Barça’s No. 1 in LaLiga, Ter Stegen has only once bettered García’s 8.4, when he registered 9.15 in 2022-23 as Barça won LaLiga and he tied the league’s clean sheet record (26) for a single season.

García’s displays in Espanyol’s goal caused teammate Sergi Gómez, himself a former Barça player, to label him “the best goalkeeper in the world” already.

“He has qualities I’ve never seen in top level keepers before,” Gómez said. “I have never seen anything like it: reflexes, bravery, quality with the ball at his feet, leadership, the security he offers. In training, out of 200 shots, he saves them all.”

That does not mean García will be a guaranteed success at Barça. Even by goalkeeping standards, he’s a relatively late arriver at the top stage. He was only promoted to No. 1 at Espanyol just over a year ago, coming into the side in the final stages of the campaign and helping them win promotion back to LaLiga. Interest from Arsenal followed, sources told ESPN at the time, but he stayed at Espanyol, featuring in all 38 league matches in his first top-flight season.

So even in his excellence at Espanyol, there will be doubts about his experience to handle the step up at Barça. Aside from the increased pressure, it is almost a completely different job. It is less about quantity and more about quality and concentration. Espanyol faced 197 shots on target last season, only Rayo Vallecano (210) allowed more, while Barça ranked 20th in the 20-team league with 112. The scrutiny and expectation to make saves is on a different level.

It is also not the only job at Barça; you have to deliver with your feet. Gómez says that will not be a problem, but again it’s a new way of playing.

Of goalkeepers to play more than 10 matches in LaLiga last season, García ranked 14th in pass success rate: 66.9% (709/1059). Peña (87.6%) and Szczesny (87.5%) ranked first and second. The data shows a lot of that is because of the type of passes an Espanyol goalkeeper is asked to play in comparison to a Barça goalkeeper, but it also highlights it’s a style he has not yet played.

The overriding numbers, though, are good. It’s why Arsenal tried to beat the rush, and why Manchester City, Newcastle United, Aston Villa and AFC Bournemouth were all linked. It’s why Barça acted quickly. It’s why Espanyol will be lamenting only including a €25m clause when they renewed his deal in 2023 — and not updating it since.

What does this mean for Ter Stegen?

Barça, for now at least, have four goalkeepers: García, Ter Stegen, Szczesny and Peña. Sources told ESPN they anticipate Peña’s departure, while there remains an expectation Szczesny will sign an extended contract. A renewal offer remains on the table for the Poland international, but sources suggested he may be waiting to see how the Ter Stegen situation plays out before re-committing.

That’s because there is a Ter Stegen dilemma.

The 33-year-old has been subjected to a similar media campaign to the one Frenkie de Jong suffered when Barça tried to force him to join Manchester United a few summers ago. Stories have been leaked about him being a bad influence as a captain in the dressing room, sulking that he wasn’t immediately re-installed as goalkeeper when he returned from injury, and ensuring the players didn’t give speeches on the day Barça lifted the trophy at the Olympic Stadium in May.

Club sources told ESPN that they don’t have to explain anything about García’s signing to Ter Stegen, just as they wouldn’t have to speak to Iñigo Martínez if they decided to bring in another centre-back.

However, other sources with knowledge of the situation say Barça could look to use the fact the World Cup is around the corner in North America in 2026 and Ter Stegen needs to play if he wants to continue as Germany’s No. 1, a role finally bestowed on him after Manuel Neuer’s international retirement last year. He got off to a good start at the UEFA Nations League this month, impressing against Portugal and France, but hanging on to the gloves will prove tough if he is not playing.

Ter Stegen has, so far, insisted he’s not going anywhere.

“I know I will be at Barcelona next season,” he stressed at the start of the month.

Sources say that remains his position and, for that reason, there is absolutely no need for him to speak again, detailing three significant reasons why he wants to stay.

The first and primary motive is football reasons. Ter Stegen believes he can still deliver as Barça’s No. 1 after his injury and that there is no better place to be ahead of the World Cup.

The second is more personal. He is happy in the city and close to his two children after separating from his long-term partner. He recently moved into a new home and some sort of stability right now is important for him and his family.

Thirdly, he has a contract until 2028 and paying it off to allow him to leave for free may be out of Barça’s price range. Ter Stegen signed his latest deal in 2023, under current president Joan Laporta, and agreed to further extend previous deferrals on salary payments to help ease the club’s financial problems. As a result, he’s still owed around €10m net per year in each of the next three seasons from delayed earnings dating back to the COVID-19 pandemic.

It creates a complicated situation and there is no immediate end in sight. Sources say interest from AS Monaco, Galatasaray and clubs in Saudi Arabia will not be considered but, with Barça not back in training for a month, the start of LaLiga two months away and the closing of the transfer window not until Sept. 1, nothing should be completely ruled out.

Each party involved has their preferred outcome. Something may have to give.

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